Nielsen PLC and pub closures

Nielsen PLC formerly known as AC Nielsen in their own words “As a global leader in measurement and information, we believe providing our clients a precise understanding of the consumer is the key to making the right decisions — decisions that can lead to profitable growth. At Nielsen, we’re always innovating to keep pace with emerging market trends and the increasingly diverse, demanding and connected consumer.

After nearly a century, we’re more focused and skilled than ever at providing the complete view of what consumers watch and buy through powerful insights that clarify the relationship between content and commerce. Whether our clients are in media, consumer packaged goods, telecom or advertising, our expansive data and measurement capabilities provide market context and confidence through our long history of innovation and integrity.”

One of their surveys was into pub closures and the smoking ban. Their PR department were kind enough to send me these papers. One key quote is:

The wet summer of 2007 has added to the downturn but Nielsen analysts estimate that just under half of the 8% decline can be attributed to the smoking ban.  Data from a Nielsen survey polled before the ban came into effect showed that 60% of people thought they would be more likely to visit a pub once it was non-smoking, but when this survey was re-polled several months after the ban had been in place, only 45% said they would be more likely to visit now pubs were non-smoking.   In fact, 44% of people said they visit licensed premises less often than they did before the ban was in place.”

The Nielsen Company
Nielsen House
London RoadHeadingtonOxford

OX3 9RX

http://www.nielsen.com
News Release

Contacts

Danielle Tolson – Nielsen

2 Billion Fewer Cigarettes Smoked and 175 Million Fewer Pints Drunk in England & Wales Since Smoking Ban Came Into Force

 For Release Monday 30th June 2008

 

 

Since the ban on Smoking in public places was introduced in England a year ago, cigarettes sales have dropped 6% according to new figures released today by market company Nielsen.

In total, smokers bought 2.1 billion less cigarettes in Britain in the 10 months from July last year to April 2008.  92% (1.93 billion cigarettes) of this decline was driven by sales in England and Wales with a further 220 million less sticks smoked in Scotland, where the ban was introduced a year earlier.

Jake Shepherd, Marketing Director at Nielsen commented, “In addition to the smoking ban, cigarette sales have been hit by new legislation which outlaws the sale of tobacco to under-18’s which came into effect in October 2007 and increasing duty on tobacco which is pricing cash strapped smokers out of the market.  Nielsen expects that the full year sales decline will amount to some 2.6 billion cigarettes less than was sold in the year before the smoking ban was introduced.”

Beer and spirits sales have also suffered.  In the 9 months from July to March volume sales of alcohol fell 8% in the On-trade in England & Wales.  Before the ban sales were falling at a steady 3%.  The wet summer of 2007 has added to the downturn but Nielsen analysts estimate that just under half of the 8% decline can be attributed to the smoking ban.  Data from a Nielsen survey polled before the ban came into effect showed that 60% of people thought they would be more likely to visit a pub once it was non-smoking, but when this survey was re-polled several months after the ban had been in place, only 45% said they would be more likely to visit now pubs were non-smoking.   In fact, 44% of people said they visit licensed premises less often than they did before the ban was in place.

Shepherd continued, “Nielsen estimates that around 175 million less pints have been drunk in the last year in England and Wales as a direct result of the smoking ban.  The winter months were particularly bad – sales fell 9.3% through November to January when smokers would have been reluctant to stand outside in the cold to have a cigarette.”

Sales of wine however, have not been as badly hit.  Sales here have gone from -2% before the ban to -4% since the ban.  Shepherd added, “Wine has held up somewhat better than other drinks, probably benefiting from the increasing importance of food and women to the On-trade.  In Scotland we have seen the sales of both tobacco and alcohol (out of home) stabilise during the second year of the ban being in force so we do not expect these decline rates to continue in the long term.  Investment into outdoor smoking areas has been considerable and most consumers have now adapted to the change.”

There was a big push to encourage smokers to quit over 2007.  Nielsen Media tracked advertising spend from manufacturers of smoking cessation products such as nicotine patches or gum –  £18 million was spent on advertising this type of product in 2007, with £6million of this focused around the time the smoking ban was introduced in England.  The government, also, ploughed investment into anti-smoking strategies with over £6million being spent on quitting advice and health service advertising.

Notes to Editor:

Scotland Smoking Ban introduced 26th March 2006

Wales Smoking Ban introduced in 2nd April 2007

England Smoking Ban introduced in 1st July 2007

Tobacco data is taken from Nielsen’s Market Track Tobacco service which monitors the sales of tobacco from Grocery Multiples, Co-ops, Multiple Forecourts, Off Licenses, Symbol groups, Independents and through the on trade.

On trade data taken from Nielsen’s On Trade Audit which monitors the sales of alcohol from a nationwide network of Pubs, Clubs, Bars, Restaurants, Hotels and other premises which hold a license for the sale of alcohol for on-premise consumption.  Data represents sales in 130,000 on trade outlets nationwide.

Advertising data sourced from Nielsen Media Research

Survey data taken from a Nielsen Homescan Panel Survey which questioned over 5,000 respondents about drinking and lifestyle habits, survey polled in June and October 2007.

Press Release number 2.

The Nielsen Company
ACNielsen House
London RoadHeadingtonOxford

OX3 9RX

www.nielsen.comwww.acnielsen.co.uk 
News Release

CONTACT(S):

Danielle Tolson

Notable decline in Scottish On Trade Alcohol Sales Since Smoking Ban

Loss of Trade in England & Wales Could Equate to 200 Million Pints

18th June, Oxford:  Ahead of the July 1st smoking ban in England, reporting by market research company Nielsen, has identified that the On-Trade is likely to see a marked decline in alcohol volume in the coming year.  Analysis of a year’s worth of sales data from Scotland following the ban there last March has identified that volume in licensed premises had fallen some 5%.  When compared with  trends in England and Wales over the same period, the numbers suggest that the majority of this decline  (4%) can be attributed to the smoking ban.

Graham Page, Consultant at the Nielsen Company commented, “The On Trade is already under intense pressure with the number of pubs visits falling and aggressive Off Trade pricing continuing to take trade.  The introduction of the smoking ban will put even more strain on this sector.”  He continued, “Some optimism can be found from Scottish consumer opinion, with a sharp jump in the number who (six months after the ban started) claimed they were more likely to visit a pub if it was non smoking than in the previous year (57% up from 45%).  However alcohol volumes do not seem to be supporting this with a notable decline in the Scottish On Trade 12 months into the ban.”

Not surprisingly volumes have been worse hit in the winter months when smokers are less inclined to stand outside in order to have a cigarette.  Nielsen data also highlighted that beer was the category taking the biggest hit with Scottish volume down some 7% (36 million pints) in the 12 months to the end of March 2007.  Page explained, “Beer volume is already under pressure South of the border with volume down 4% year on year. If we see a further 4% decline via the smoking ban this would   equate to a 200 million pint fall out of the market.”

He Continued, “It’s not all doom and gloom and indeed some categories have performed well since the ban with Wine maintaining a healthy 3% volume growth year on year. This suggests a shift in the type of consumer frequenting the on trade and an opportunity licensees need to grab.”

“Furthermore, premises which focus on food will likely fare better as this has the double whammy effect of increasing sales through food and increasing sales because meals are often accompanied by wine. Indeed analysis from our Pub*Track  service which tracks managed houses shows that in the year to March 2007 Scottish Managed houses outperformed the market showing a 14% increase in main meals served while in England & Wales growth here is behind at 10%.   Now that pubs will have a smoke free atmosphere, the family market would be a logical sector to target.”  added Page.

In addition, a recent Nielsen consumer survey highlighted that, when questioned, the AB socio-economic consumers said they would be more likely visit an outlet if they knew it was non-smoking.

“This is a key opportunity particularly to attack the 50+ market where a lot of high disposable income resides” added Page.

Page went on “The trade in England & Wales have had more time to prepare for the ban and it is also more oriented to the Multiple Groups so investment in outdoor facilities should be in place to help minimise any potential impact. It will probably take until next Spring before we can assess the impact of the bans now in place in Wales and imminent in England as the winter will be the real test. However the on trade will be bracing itself as in 2006 we had the benefit of the World Cup and the summer was a belter weatherwise.”

“The one real unknown and potential benefit”, he added,” will be any medium term benefits, 2 – 3 years on, for pubs and other On Trade operators, as the current 76% of people who are non smokers, may find smoke free atmospheres in pubs, clubs, hotels and bars much more attractive and it could result in much need increases in weekly visits”!

NOTES

The Nielsen On Trade Audit measures Retail DRINKS sales in Great Britain in Pubs, Clubs, Bars, Hotels and Restaurants, via a structured sample of 3300 On Trade outlets, weighted to represent all GB On Trade Licensed outlets, including managed, tenanted/leased and independent pubs.

The Nielsen consumer survey referred to in this document was polled 8 months after the Scottish smoking ban was enforced, in November 2006 through the Nielsen Homescan Panel of 10,000.

Pub food data was sourced from Nielsen’s Pubtrack service which measures sales in over 8000 managed multiple pubs through EPoS inputs.

About The Nielsen Company

The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions and recognized brands in marketing information (ACNielsen), media information (Nielsen Media Research), business publications (Billboard, The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek), trade shows and the newspaper sector (Scarborough Research). The privately held company is active in more than 100 countries, with headquarters in Haarlem, the Netherlands, and New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com.

About The Nielsen Company The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing information (ACNielsen), media information (Nielsen Media Research), online intelligence (NetRatings and BuzzMetrics), mobile measurement, trade shows and business publications (Billboard, The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek). The privately held company is active in more than 100 countries, with headquarters in Haarlem, the Netherlands, and New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com

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22 Responses to Nielsen PLC and pub closures

  1. I don’t know how accurate the reportage is, but the following snippet makes me wonder who paid for this piece of research by Nielson and who designed the questions:

    “only 45% said they would be more likely to visit now pubs were non-smoking. In fact, 44% of people said they visit licensed premises less often than they did before the ban was in place.”

    Notice that the first half refers to people’s opinions that “they would be more likely to visit now pubs were non-smoking” NOT that they HAVE BEEN VISITING MORE… just that they thought that they’d be more likely to if they ever actually decided to.

    Meanwhile the second half said ” 44% of people said they visit licensed premises less often than they did before the ban was in place.” Note: the percent who actually VISITED less often — in practice — than before the ban.

    I find it hard to believe that Nielson would let something that obvious slip by, but if the survey was paid for by the Antis they might well have been pressured to produce a survey that would give desirable results. One of their fellows, the “Mellman Group” in the US, has (or had) on one of their primary web pages the following reassurance designed to attract clients:

    “Some pollsters simply report on opinions. We use the most sophisticated analytical tools available to understand the motivations of consumers and voters so we can intervene in their decision-making processes to produce the outcomes our clients want.”

    Nielson may not say it as clearly on their pages, but I find it hard to imagine that in balancing their desires for accuracy with their need for clients that there’s absolutely no bending of poll wordings and suchlike in order to please those clients with the “proper” sort of results.

    – MJM

  2. daveatherton says:

    Michael I hope you are well. I do think this is honest research, as these papers came out early after the smoking ban. The bottom line is non smokers have not gone to the pub more and smokers have done it less.

  3. Gary K. says:

    Tobacco data is taken from Nielsen’s Market Track Tobacco service which monitors the sales of tobacco from Grocery Multiples, Co-ops, Multiple Forecourts, Off Licenses, Symbol groups, Independents and through the on trade.

    On trade data taken from Nielsen’s On Trade Audit which monitors the sales of alcohol from a nationwide network of Pubs, Clubs, Bars, Restaurants, Hotels and other premises which hold a license for the sale of alcohol for on-premise consumption. Data represents sales in 130,000 on trade outlets nationwide.
    ……………………………………………………………..

    Wonder what sort of data they would get if they considered ‘black market’/make your own cigarette consumption and the sales of alcohol for ‘off-premise’ consumption.

    I make my own cigarettes and have NOT purchased a pack in several years.

    About 90% of my alcohol consumption is done at home and does not involve, post ban, on-premise consumption.

  4. harleyrider1978 says:

    Official: Smokers Actually Visit Bars Less Often Now
    Health Dept. Corrects Report On Smoking Ban

    COLUMBUS, Ohio — The Ohio Department of Health has corrected a report on the impact of the statewide smoking ban following questions by a state senator.

    Director Theodore Wymsylo says smokers and non-smokers were flipped in a chart showing how frequently they’ve visited bars since the ban took effect in 2007.

    The graph now shows that 40 percent of current smokers who were surveyed say they visit bars less often, while about 7 percent of non-smokers say they go more often.

    Republican Sen. Bill Seitz, of Cincinnati, and the ban’s opponents have seized on the report, saying it’s flawed and its executive summary omitted certain figures.

    The Ohio Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments Oct. 19 in a constitutional challenge to the ban brought by bar and restaurant owners.

    Read more: http://www.wlwt.com/health/29420203/detail.html#ixzz1aI1LJt56

  5. harleyrider1978 says:

    354 pubs had to close because of the smoking ban

    Over the past year made ??close to the Canary Islands 354 pubs.

    Canary Islands – This was announced by the regional association of recreational facilities and catering operators (Fecao) with and makes for the jobs destroyed as a result mainly responsible for the smoking ban. In a public announcement raises Fecao the authorities’ unprecedented witch-hunt “against.
    If you prefer to consider that are engaged in any operation for about four to six employees, then since the ban came into 2,000 jobs have been destroyed. According to the Canary Islands are Spain Fecao much on the sad fourth place in terms of the number of deaths from food court. 2010 were still registered 8451, 2011, there are only 8097.
    The consequences of the second January 2011 which came into force more stringent anti-tobacco law – strict ban on smoking in all pubs, restaurants and nightclubs – are seen, according to information from Fecao especially in Madrid, where the number of bars and pubs has fallen by almost 700th Also in Andalusia (424 deaths) and Galicia (367), the effects were clearly visible. “And despite all this, some politicians advocate as Health Minister Leire Pajín the success of this law, which in reality has led to business closures in Spain and continues,” it says in the statement of the Association. The problem is compounded for the industry that there is currently no active employment promotion policies for SMEs, waiting to continue reductions in the national health insurance and tax benefits. Rather, the self were currently exposed to an unprecedented hunt: workplace inspections, health inspections, traffic controls – with strikingly frequent inspections of company cars, complains Fecao.

    http://www.wochenblatt.es/1000003/1000001/0/25595/article.html

  6. Jonathan Bagley says:

    So smuggling is up then.

  7. pat nurse says:

    wish me luck dave, im going to give it a go and stop smoking, this coughing and my deadfull grey complexion is a shocker

    good luck i’m still with you freedom fighters and i will get a real comfortable smoking shelter attached to the consevatory for any smokers who come around for xams

  8. NOTE!!!! The above post from Pat Nurse is HIGHLY unlikely to be from Pat Nurse. Visit her blog at:

    http://patnurseblog.blogspot.com/

    and you’ll see at the top:

    ===
    WARNING
    Please be aware that Someone is impersonating me on other blogs and writing comments that are not mine.
    ===

    Dave, she’s also asked that you leave the comment for now I think. She is pursuing legal action against this person.

    – MJM

  9. db says:

    The phrase “perfect storm” has been used to describe the combination of high rents, beer ties, recession, supermarket pricing of alcohol, the smoking ban and the change in drinking habits that has conspired against the industry to force this unprecedented rate of closures and of course kebab houses suffer too,”If there is a small decline in the performance of the business because of other factors such as the smoking ban and the general economic climate, the kebabs will come to bite the tenant first because they have such high fixed overheads

  10. db, I’m familiar with the claim, and it has, unfortunately, been picked up/spread by the industry as well, but I think the concept (and possibly this use for the term) comes straight from the Antismoking Industry in their attempts to deny the influence of the smoking bans.

    The recession is a paper tiger: the bans have their effect in the years directly following their implementation no matter WHEN the implementations took place. Chris Snowdon documented this with (I believe) the primary data coming from Dave (?) for Ireland, Scotland, England, and Wales. I saw it take place in Minnesota with their Charitable Gambling Taxes (See p. 19 of “The LIes…” at:

    http://kuneman.smokersclub.com/PASAN/StilettoGenv5h.pdf

    And we saw it with casinos here in the States when for one particular year right after the illinois ban went into effect Illinois receipts were down 22% while the three bordering casino states ALL showed INCREASES.

    Beer ties may be something new since the ban: I don’t know about them. The supermarket pricing of alcohol has, I believe, always been cheaper than pub pricing, although maybe MORE so now because pubs raised their prices BECAUSE OF THE SMOKING BAN! As for the “change in drinking habits” … well, duh, I don’t suppose the smoking ban might have had anything to do with that right? After all, why would smokers mind being sent out into the cold and rain to smoke? It must have just been pure blinding coincidence that the smokers and their friends all started going out to pubs less after a ban. And the tooth fairy is real too.

    Don’t let the Antis get away with pushing “the perfect storm.” The real root of the problem, the real cause of the pub disasters, and possibly even a real contributing cause to larger economic problems, is the antismoking campaign. Read the research I did with Dave Kuneman here in the States back in 2005 at:

    http://kuneman.smokersclub.com/economic.html

    and note how the figures indicate a total loss of 100 BILLION dollars to the economy of just ONE of our states because of the bans there. Then extrapolate that.

    Michael J. McFadden
    Author of “Dissecting Antismokers’ Brains”

  11. db says:

    im starting to see things differently now that the Government believes that people should have the choice to smoke, but that it is also right that people are both made aware of the major health risks of smoking and are provided with support to quit.

    Therefore, by increasing the information available about the dangers of smoking and providing support to individuals who want to stop, the Government can hope to reduce smoking by helping people make the choice or not to start or to give up.

    At the same time, it is right that others should be protected from exposure to harzardous secondhand tobacco smoke. The smokefree legislation eliminates smoking in virtually every enclosed public place and workplace in this country.

    There is a clear evidence that the smokefree legislation is working very well and almost all enclosed workspaces and public places are free from secondhand smoke. and many problems with ponies running down road has gone too Many families are now voluntarily making their homes smokefree, reducing children’s exposure to secondhand smoke.

  12. db, you’ve provided a beautiful example of antismoking slipperyness there. Thank you.

    You mix in the health risks of smoking (which most people agree exist) with the propaganda claim that Gvt believes people should have the choice to smoke. In reality Gvt would love to take that away (due to the controlling force the Health Ministry has in the area) but they need the tax money, know they couldn’t control the black market, and are afraid of the political consequences in any event. So, they will continue down the road of prohibition by attrition in the vain hope that the number of smokers will eventually be reduced to a point where a more final solution can be implemented.

    Your second paragraph is a reasonable one, again leading into propaganda with the “hazardous secondhand smoke” swing. You know perfectly well that applying the label “hazardous” to tobacco smoke in any decently ventilated indoor situation is nonsense … but it slips in nicely after praising efforts to “help” people quit, right?

    And then you fly your true flag in all its glory with the Baghdad Bob mantra about the ban “working very well” when in reality it’s been an utter disaster for the pub industry and the lives and livelihoods of the people working in that industry — not even to mention the disaster of the social dissatisfaction and dislocation caused by the ban. And finally you add another mantra just for style, trying to play the bandwagon card of “Gee, everyone ELSE is doing it: you should TOO!” while ignoring the fact that “Many families are **NOT** now voluntarily making their homes smoke free” in order to “Save The Children.”

    Sorry Dickie: it doesn’t work.

    – MJM

  13. db says:

    thanks michael you prove yet again that pro smokers don’t read the sort of stuff you post and dave atherton does too.

    i can input the most stupid phrase into the cut and paste or have 2 made up posts answering each other with no correlation whatsover and it goes by unoticed, i have several around on the blogs at the moment

    the stuff you spout dosen’t even get read by pro smokers properly, its all about sounding off trying to sound clever with a passing reference maybe to something you glanced at on another post.

    i.e kebabs in the first post you replied too, and ponies in the second.

    it does work…he he

  14. Dickie, what you don’t seem capable of realizing is that the ponies and kebabs make just as much sense as the rest of your material.

    – MJM

  15. db says:

    nice try michael but it dosen;t fool anyone, this proven method of posting lookalike stuff goes by unoticed, i have 2 paragraphs in one post that dosen’t make sense, replies between 2 posters that are complete nonsense., i could go on and on.

    the problem is that a silly long winded thread like dave atherton posts and yourself along with other blaggers just re hack the same stuff time and time again and it bores everyone so they don’t read it properly.

    pro smokers don’t read this sort of shite and its funny watching pompus silly asses look like fools they are, if you can’t get the small niche club to take notice, how the hell will joe bloggs listen.

    i have some cracking almost one liners that have gone by without a glance in the name of the respected bloggers, although hats off to one bright spark who realised hedge trimmers and ladders didn’t fit in

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