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One of their surveys was into pub closures and the smoking ban. Their PR department were kind enough to send me these papers. One key quote is:
The wet summer of 2007 has added to the downturn but Nielsen analysts estimate that just under half of the 8% decline can be attributed to the smoking ban. Data from a Nielsen survey polled before the ban came into effect showed that 60% of people thought they would be more likely to visit a pub once it was non-smoking, but when this survey was re-polled several months after the ban had been in place, only 45% said they would be more likely to visit now pubs were non-smoking. In fact, 44% of people said they visit licensed premises less often than they did before the ban was in place.”
|The Nielsen Company|
Danielle Tolson – Nielsen
2 Billion Fewer Cigarettes Smoked and 175 Million Fewer Pints Drunk in England & Wales Since Smoking Ban Came Into Force
For Release Monday 30th June 2008
Since the ban on Smoking in public places was introduced in England a year ago, cigarettes sales have dropped 6% according to new figures released today by market company Nielsen.
In total, smokers bought 2.1 billion less cigarettes in Britain in the 10 months from July last year to April 2008. 92% (1.93 billion cigarettes) of this decline was driven by sales in England and Wales with a further 220 million less sticks smoked in Scotland, where the ban was introduced a year earlier.
Jake Shepherd, Marketing Director at Nielsen commented, “In addition to the smoking ban, cigarette sales have been hit by new legislation which outlaws the sale of tobacco to under-18’s which came into effect in October 2007 and increasing duty on tobacco which is pricing cash strapped smokers out of the market. Nielsen expects that the full year sales decline will amount to some 2.6 billion cigarettes less than was sold in the year before the smoking ban was introduced.”
Beer and spirits sales have also suffered. In the 9 months from July to March volume sales of alcohol fell 8% in the On-trade in England & Wales. Before the ban sales were falling at a steady 3%. The wet summer of 2007 has added to the downturn but Nielsen analysts estimate that just under half of the 8% decline can be attributed to the smoking ban. Data from a Nielsen survey polled before the ban came into effect showed that 60% of people thought they would be more likely to visit a pub once it was non-smoking, but when this survey was re-polled several months after the ban had been in place, only 45% said they would be more likely to visit now pubs were non-smoking. In fact, 44% of people said they visit licensed premises less often than they did before the ban was in place.
Shepherd continued, “Nielsen estimates that around 175 million less pints have been drunk in the last year in England and Wales as a direct result of the smoking ban. The winter months were particularly bad – sales fell 9.3% through November to January when smokers would have been reluctant to stand outside in the cold to have a cigarette.”
Sales of wine however, have not been as badly hit. Sales here have gone from -2% before the ban to -4% since the ban. Shepherd added, “Wine has held up somewhat better than other drinks, probably benefiting from the increasing importance of food and women to the On-trade. In Scotland we have seen the sales of both tobacco and alcohol (out of home) stabilise during the second year of the ban being in force so we do not expect these decline rates to continue in the long term. Investment into outdoor smoking areas has been considerable and most consumers have now adapted to the change.”
There was a big push to encourage smokers to quit over 2007. Nielsen Media tracked advertising spend from manufacturers of smoking cessation products such as nicotine patches or gum – £18 million was spent on advertising this type of product in 2007, with £6million of this focused around the time the smoking ban was introduced in England. The government, also, ploughed investment into anti-smoking strategies with over £6million being spent on quitting advice and health service advertising.
Notes to Editor:
Scotland Smoking Ban introduced 26th March 2006
Wales Smoking Ban introduced in 2nd April 2007
England Smoking Ban introduced in 1st July 2007
Tobacco data is taken from Nielsen’s Market Track Tobacco service which monitors the sales of tobacco from Grocery Multiples, Co-ops, Multiple Forecourts, Off Licenses, Symbol groups, Independents and through the on trade.
On trade data taken from Nielsen’s On Trade Audit which monitors the sales of alcohol from a nationwide network of Pubs, Clubs, Bars, Restaurants, Hotels and other premises which hold a license for the sale of alcohol for on-premise consumption. Data represents sales in 130,000 on trade outlets nationwide.
Advertising data sourced from Nielsen Media Research
Survey data taken from a Nielsen Homescan Panel Survey which questioned over 5,000 respondents about drinking and lifestyle habits, survey polled in June and October 2007.
Press Release number 2.
|The Nielsen Company|
Notable decline in Scottish On Trade Alcohol Sales Since Smoking Ban
Loss of Trade in England & Wales Could Equate to 200 Million Pints
18th June, Oxford: Ahead of the July 1st smoking ban in England, reporting by market research company Nielsen, has identified that the On-Trade is likely to see a marked decline in alcohol volume in the coming year. Analysis of a year’s worth of sales data from Scotland following the ban there last March has identified that volume in licensed premises had fallen some 5%. When compared with trends in England and Wales over the same period, the numbers suggest that the majority of this decline (4%) can be attributed to the smoking ban.
Graham Page, Consultant at the Nielsen Company commented, “The On Trade is already under intense pressure with the number of pubs visits falling and aggressive Off Trade pricing continuing to take trade. The introduction of the smoking ban will put even more strain on this sector.” He continued, “Some optimism can be found from Scottish consumer opinion, with a sharp jump in the number who (six months after the ban started) claimed they were more likely to visit a pub if it was non smoking than in the previous year (57% up from 45%). However alcohol volumes do not seem to be supporting this with a notable decline in the Scottish On Trade 12 months into the ban.”
Not surprisingly volumes have been worse hit in the winter months when smokers are less inclined to stand outside in order to have a cigarette. Nielsen data also highlighted that beer was the category taking the biggest hit with Scottish volume down some 7% (36 million pints) in the 12 months to the end of March 2007. Page explained, “Beer volume is already under pressure South of the border with volume down 4% year on year. If we see a further 4% decline via the smoking ban this would equate to a 200 million pint fall out of the market.”
He Continued, “It’s not all doom and gloom and indeed some categories have performed well since the ban with Wine maintaining a healthy 3% volume growth year on year. This suggests a shift in the type of consumer frequenting the on trade and an opportunity licensees need to grab.”
“Furthermore, premises which focus on food will likely fare better as this has the double whammy effect of increasing sales through food and increasing sales because meals are often accompanied by wine. Indeed analysis from our Pub*Track service which tracks managed houses shows that in the year to March 2007 Scottish Managed houses outperformed the market showing a 14% increase in main meals served while in England & Wales growth here is behind at 10%. Now that pubs will have a smoke free atmosphere, the family market would be a logical sector to target.” added Page.
In addition, a recent Nielsen consumer survey highlighted that, when questioned, the AB socio-economic consumers said they would be more likely visit an outlet if they knew it was non-smoking.
“This is a key opportunity particularly to attack the 50+ market where a lot of high disposable income resides” added Page.
Page went on “The trade in England & Wales have had more time to prepare for the ban and it is also more oriented to the Multiple Groups so investment in outdoor facilities should be in place to help minimise any potential impact. It will probably take until next Spring before we can assess the impact of the bans now in place in Wales and imminent in England as the winter will be the real test. However the on trade will be bracing itself as in 2006 we had the benefit of the World Cup and the summer was a belter weatherwise.”
“The one real unknown and potential benefit”, he added,” will be any medium term benefits, 2 – 3 years on, for pubs and other On Trade operators, as the current 76% of people who are non smokers, may find smoke free atmospheres in pubs, clubs, hotels and bars much more attractive and it could result in much need increases in weekly visits”!
The Nielsen On Trade Audit measures Retail DRINKS sales in Great Britain in Pubs, Clubs, Bars, Hotels and Restaurants, via a structured sample of 3300 On Trade outlets, weighted to represent all GB On Trade Licensed outlets, including managed, tenanted/leased and independent pubs.
The Nielsen consumer survey referred to in this document was polled 8 months after the Scottish smoking ban was enforced, in November 2006 through the Nielsen Homescan Panel of 10,000.
Pub food data was sourced from Nielsen’s Pubtrack service which measures sales in over 8000 managed multiple pubs through EPoS inputs.
About The Nielsen Company
The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions and recognized brands in marketing information (ACNielsen), media information (Nielsen Media Research), business publications (Billboard, The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek), trade shows and the newspaper sector (Scarborough Research). The privately held company is active in more than 100 countries, with headquarters in Haarlem, the Netherlands, and New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com.
About The Nielsen Company The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing information (ACNielsen), media information (Nielsen Media Research), online intelligence (NetRatings and BuzzMetrics), mobile measurement, trade shows and business publications (Billboard, The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek). The privately held company is active in more than 100 countries, with headquarters in Haarlem, the Netherlands, and New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com