Does smoking cause lung cancer? The Outer House Court Session in Scotland said not necessarily

I have very embarrassingly been invited to a symposium on the causes of lung cancer in smokers and whether the correlation is causal or whether it is confounded. Lots of midnight oil burning for me with copious notes. For the record I believe there is sound evidence that it does.

It is one of the strange ironies that we in the pro choice movement do not use this as ammunition against the anti smokers. It concerns:

“Alfred McTear died, aged 48, on 23 March 1993. He and his wife, Mrs Margaret McTear…He was the original pursuer in this action. After his death his wife, as his executrix-dative, was sisted as the pursuer in his room and place. For convenience I shall refer to them respectively as Mr McTear and Mrs McTear.

http://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/opinions/2005CSOH69.html

[1.3] The defenders are Imperial Tobacco Limited, whom I shall refer to as ITL. They manufacture, market and sell tobacco products in the United Kingdom, particularly cigarettes, including the John Player brand. They supply cigarettes to retail outlets throughout Scotland for onward sale to the public, and have done so for many years.

[1.4] Mr McTear died of lung cancer. In this action Mrs McTear claims that this was caused, at least to a material extent, by his smoking, from 1964 to 1992 cigarettes manufactured by ITL, and that throughout the period during which he smoked them ITL were negligent in selling cigarettes, or in any event in selling them without appropriate warnings, and she seeks an award of damages accordingly.” Apparently he also rolled Old Holborn too.

It is a tribute to the presiding Judge Nimmo Smith that the anti smokers were forced to meet ITL on an equal footing and the evidence goes into incredible scientific detail with 38 references to the p53 gene and an astonishing 75 reference to  benzo(a)pyrene for example. This was not one of ASH’s cut and shut, stitch ups with Stephen Williams MP, Anne Milton, and the Department of Health.

The first thing I read in the conclusions was on advertising, Judge Smith said:

“9.3] Mr McTear started smoking no earlier than 1964. I am satisfied that advertising had nothing to do with his reasons for starting to smoke. He started smoking because it was socially acceptable and most young people started smoking as part of becoming adults (para.[4.226]). I am prepared to accept that Mr McTear found it difficult to wean himself off his habit once he had started smoking and in that sense could be described as addicted. I do not accept that he was for this reason unable to stop smoking (paras.[4.229] and [6.202] to [6.208]). The averment that tobacco is more addictive than cocaine is not proved.

[9.4] I am satisfied that at all material times, and in particular by 1964, the general public in the United Kingdom, including smokers and potential smokers, were well aware of the health risks associated with smoking, and in particular of the view that smoking could cause lung cancer (para.[3.1] and Part III generally). I am also satisfied that Mr McTear was aware, in common with the general public, well before 1971 of the publicity about the health risks associated with smoking, and in particular the risk of lung cancer. Therefore by the time he is shown by acceptable evidence to have started smoking the John Player brand of cigarettes he was already aware of the publicity about the health risks. As with many other aspects of his life, he chose to ignore it (para.[4.230]).

[9.5] The pursuer can succeed in this case only if she proves all of the following (paras.[1.5] and [6.29]):

(1) That cigarette smoking can cause lung cancer, in the sense that both in the general population and in any individual case it can be said that but for the smoking of cigarettes lung cancer would probably not have been contracted (general causation).

(2) That cigarette smoking caused Mr McTear’s lung cancer, in the sense that but for his having smoked cigarettes he would probably not have contracted lung cancer (individual causation).

(3) That Mr McTear smoked cigarettes manufactured by ITL for long enough and in sufficient quantity for his smoking of their products to have caused or materially contributed to the development of his lung cancer.

(4) That Mr McTear smoked cigarettes manufactured by ITL because ITL were in breach of a duty of care owed by them to him.

(5) That such breach caused or materially contributed to Mr McTear’s lung cancer either by making at least a material contribution to the exposure which caused his lung cancer or by materially increasing the risk of his contracting lung cancer (fault causation).

[9.6] There is no direct evidence that ITL, as a company, have ever accepted that there was a causal connection between smoking and disease, and the evidence before me does not satisfy me that this is the inference which should be drawn (para.[2.76]). The fact that they have never sought to challenge the public health message, that cigarette smoking does cause lung cancer, does not in my opinion constitute such an admission (para.[2.78]). Accordingly, in my opinion, ITL are entitled to put the pursuer to proof of her averment that cigarette smoking can cause lung cancer (para.[2.80]).

[9.7] I must base my decisions about questions of fact on the evidence, and that alone (para.[1.8]). It is not open to me to take account of any passage in any document, the terms of which were not agreed, and to which reference was not made in the course of the evidence of any witness (para.[1.37]). It is not within judicial knowledge that cigarette smoking can cause lung cancer: this is an issue which I am duty-bound to approach with an open mind and to decide on the basis of the evidence led before me; and the burden of proving it is on the pursuer (para.[1.12]).

[9.8] The law relating to expert witnesses is as discussed at para.[5.17]. Above all, the purpose of leading the evidence of any expert witness should have been to impart to me special knowledge of the subject-matter, including published material, lying within the witness’s field of expertise, so as to enable me to form my own judgment about that subject-matter and the conclusions to be drawn from it.

[9.9] The pursuer relies on epidemiology to prove general causation. I have not been sufficiently instructed by the expert evidence relating to this discipline to be able to form my own judgment as to whether or not this averment is proved. Special knowledge of this subject-matter was not imparted to me, so as to enable me to form my own judgment about it. The pursuer has accordingly failed to prove this averment (paras.[6.149] to [6.171]).

[9.10] In any event, the pursuer has failed to prove individual causation. Epidemiology cannot be used to establish causation in any individual case, and the use of statistics applicable to the general population to determine the likelihood of causation in an individual is fallacious. Given that there are possible causes of lung cancer other than cigarette smoking, and given that lung cancer can occur in a non-smoker, it is not possible to determine in any individual case whether but for an individual’s cigarette smoking he probably would not have contracted lung cancer (paras.[6.172] to [6.185]).

[9.11] In any event there was no lack of reasonable care on the part of ITL at any point at which Mr McTear consumed their products, and the pursuer’s negligence case fails. There is no breach of a duty of care on the part of a manufacturer, if a consumer of the manufacturer’s product is harmed by the product, but the consumer knew of the product’s potential for causing harm prior to consumption of it. The individual is well enough served if he is given such information as a normally intelligent person would include in his assessment of how he wishes to conduct his life, thus putting him in the position of making an informed choice (paras.[7.167] to [7.181]).

[9.12] In any event, there is no basis upon which I could hold it established that, if ITL had not manufactured cigarettes at any material time, so that Mr McTear did not smoke their products and accordingly their products could not have made a material contribution to his contracting lung cancer, it would have made any difference. On the contrary, all the evidence is that Mr McTear would have started smoking when he did, and would have continued to smoke, for the same length of time and in the same quantities, as he in fact did. Fault causation would therefore not in any event be established (paras.[7.182] to [7.183]).

[9.13] On my interpretation of the law relating to the maxim volenti non fit iniuria, and in the circumstances of this case, I would not have been disposed to sustain the fourth plea-in-law for ITL, if the pursuer had otherwise succeeded on the foregoing issues (paras.[7.204] to [7.208]).

[9.14] The damages which I would have awarded, had the pursuer succeeded, would have been £25,000 for her claim for compensation under section 1(4) of the Damages (Scotland) Act 1976 (as amended), £45,000 for her claim under section 2(1) of the Act as Mr McTear’s executrix for solatium for the pain, suffering and loss of the amenities of life experienced by him, and £8,000 for her claim under section 8(1) of the Act for services rendered by her to him during his final illness (paras.[8.20] to [8.22]). With interest to 31 May 2005 the total award of damages would have been £138,823.32 (para.[8.23]).

[9.15] In my opinion therefore, for all the foregoing reasons, the pursuer’s case fails on every issue on which I would have needed to find in her favour were I to hold the defenders liable to her in damages. I accordingly sustain the second and third pleas-in-law for the defenders and assoilzie them from the conclusions of the summons.”

Game set and match to Imperial Tobacco.

 

 

 

 

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Hat Tip Rose, the WHO are now after drinkers.

We all know that tobacco control is the pathfinder for the World Health Organization (WHO) to interfere in other habits. It is alcohol this time.

Rose was kind enough to post this link from Poland and in her own words.

Health Ministry accepts controversial WHO alcohol proposals

“Poland’s Health Ministry has accepted a controversial raft of proposals from the World Health Organisation (WHO) designed to counter alcohol abuse in the EU.
The WHO document proposes that all liquor stores must be licenced by the state, and that these shops should only be open for business for only eight hours per day.
Some alcohol shops in Poland are currently open through the night.

Although EU countries are not immediately obliged to create legislation in response to the document, the EC will begin work on a new strategy to confront alcohol abuse this spring.”
http://www.thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/90297,Health-Ministry-accepts-controversial-WHO-alcohol-proposals

This link has some goodies in it too, and you can see where it is all going.

“Resolution: European action plan to reduce the harmful use of alcohol 2012–2020″

RECOMMENDS Member States 2:
(a) to use the Action Plan to formulate or, if appropriate, reformulate national alcohol policies and national alcohol action plans;
(b) to strengthen international collaboration in the face of increasing levels of common and transboundary challenges and threats in this area;
(c) to promote and support policies and interventions to decrease the harmful use of  alcohol that preserve and protect public health interests while ensuring that  measures to this effect remain proportionate and evidence-based;
(d) to promote an evidence-based approach that includes all levels of government, as well as all affected sectors and stakeholders involved including communities, civil society and the private sector in the actions needed to prevent or reduce alcoholrelated harm;
(e) to promote alcohol-free policies in an increasing number of settings and circumstances such as the workplace, means of public transport, the environments of children and youth and during pregnancy; (f) to reduce exposure to alcohol marketing, and in particular to protect children and youth from alcohol marketing of all kinds;
(g) to ensure, that in doing so, the measures aiming at reducing the harmful use of alcohol comply with international treaties and agreements;”

Don’t say us smokers did not warn you…cont p94 etc.

 

http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/150552/RC61_R4.pdf

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Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) are still funded by the taxpayer

Are ASH still funded by the taxpayer?

According to Earl Howe in Hansard no was the answer on:

“26 Apr 2011 : Column WA1 

Written Answers

Tuesday 26 April 2011

Action on Smoking and Health

Question

Asked by Lord Naseby

To ask Her Majesty’s Government how much public money was given to Action on Smoking and Health in 2009-10; how much was budgeted for 2010-11; and whether this will be cut in 2011-12. [HL8180]

The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Health (Earl Howe): Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) received funding of £210,000 in 2009-10 and £220,000 in 2010-11 through the department’s Section 64 General Scheme of Grants to Voluntary and Community Organisations. ASH received these grants specifically to carry out a defined project entitled Capitalising on Smokefree: the way forward.

ASH did not make a grant application to the department’s Third Sector Investment Programme: Innovation, Excellence and Service Development Fund for 2011-12. The department currently has no other plans to provide ASH with funding in the next financial year.”

National treasure Philip Davies on the 15th June posed this question to Health Secretary Anne Milton.

Philip Davies (Shipley, Conservative)

To ask the Secretary of State for Health whether funding allocated toAction on Smoking and Health by his Department may be used for lobbying purposes by that body.

Photo of Anne MiltonAnne Milton (Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Public Health), Health; Guildford, Conservative)Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) has received funding from the Department in the past, through the Department’s ‘Section 64 General Scheme of Grants to voluntary and Community Organisations’. ASH received these grants specifically to carry out defined projects.None of this funding was, or could be used, for lobbying purposes.”

Earl Howe said let me remind you said “The department currently has no other plans to provide ASH with funding in the next financial year.”

I have since received this letter from the Department of Health, it says:

“At the time of Lord Howe’s statement, no decision has been made about whether to award a Section 64 grant to Action on Smoking and Health for 2011-2012. A grant of £150,000 has subsequently been awarded to ASH for work to support the delivery of some of the commitments in the Tobacco Control Plan for England, published last year.”

No peace for the wicked.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201011/ldhansrd/text/110426w0001.htm

http://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2011-06-15e.59718.h

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My rant on climate change

I have written this comment on the BMJ Blog on climate change in response to this article, “Nell Crowden: What’s bad for the climate is bad for health.”.

http://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2012/02/07/nell-crowden-what%E2%80%99s-bad-for-the-climate-is-bad-for-health/

I do not think James Dellingpole and Lord Monckton would necessarily agree, and me for example. Prof Phil Jones was asked whether there has been any statistically significant increase in global warming since 1997 and the answer was no.

In Roman times grapes for wine were grown as far north as South Scotland. In the 1920s while digging up Finchley Road Tube Station, the scree exposed suggested that was the furthest extent of the last ice age. The UK must have had a climate similar to north Sweden. While conversely 7 miles south at Trafalgar Square, underneath Nelson’s Column the bones of lions and rhinoceros from 250,000 years ago suggesting we had a climate similar to the African savannah. Climate changes naturally.
I am old enough to remember the BBC Radio Times front cover from I think 1976 where a new Ice Age was due upon us. The reason stated was that the smoke from coal and oil was blotting out the sun. Now it is blamed for global warming.
I remain truly sceptical for two reasons. Most of the people who are the main protagonists are paid by the state and as Dellingpole’s latest book suggests are and/or left wing “watermelons.” Green on the outside, red on the inside.  The fall of the Berlin Wall exposed the economic desperation and incompetence of socialism. The left lost the economic argument  and now wants new ways to control us and denigrate capitalism. Climate change is the perfect platform to go big business bashing. The other way is controlling our bodies.
Smoking bans and restrictions, obesity and McDonalds bashing, and now the demonisation of alcohol and drinkers. The left know what is good for us.
The second reason is that my expertise is smoking. I am happy to concede that ACTIVE smoking is as bad as the anti smokers make out. However the reason for smoking bans is the supposed harm of PASSIVE smoking. It is hugely ironic that I believe the commentator below (Richard Smith) was the one Editor (then of the BMJ)  brave enough to publish a 40 year study into passive smoking which found no correlation between second hand cigarette smoke and lung cancer. This falls into line with 85% of the other papers.
From my experience of tobacco control they have mislead the public and governments on a Biblical scale. Dissenting scientists have been hounded out of their jobs or silenced. Quite obvious endemic publication bias approaching fraud. Ad hominem and personal attacks replace debate.  Science to me as a layman has returned to the alchemy of the medieval ages. Politics has replaced science and objectivity, grants and loans give the proponents a tidy living and media access/ego scratching.
It is no coincidence that oil companies are tarred with using the same tactics as tobacco companies by their opponents.
I can see this all in the AGW Climate camp. It uses the same rent seeking, dubious tactics as the anti smokers. This is yet more junk science.
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Memo to Professor Simon Chapman on plain packaging

His nibs has been to cold inclement Britain to promote plain packaging. With the launch in Bristol with Liberal Democratic MP Stephen Williams, quotes in one or either terms may be inserted and his article in the Guardian. Chapman was crowing about a youth smoking, “…and young people’s smoking rates in Australia are at their lowest ever, just 2.5% of 14- to 17-year olds smoke.” So what does Australian youth for chemical stimulation? I found this site called http://www.betterhealth.vic.gov.au and I quote: “The Better Health Channel was established in May 1999 by the Victorian (Australia) State Government. “

The first part is obvious.

Reasons teenagers take drugs

Young people use drugs for similar reasons that adults do – to change how they feel because they want to feel better or different. Reasons may include:

  • Socialising with friends, peer pressure or the need to feel part of a group
  • Relaxation or fun
  • Boredom
  • Curiosity, experimentation or wanting to take risks
  • To escape from psychological or physiological pain.”
I cannot see plain packaging mentioned here.
“Drugs commonly used by teenagers

Alcohol, cannabis and tobacco are the three most commonly used drugs among young people. According to the National Drug Strategy Household Survey of Australians aged 14–19 years, in 2010:

  • 67 per cent had tried alcohol and just over one in five (21.1 per cent) were drinking alcohol on a weekly basis.
  • One in five (21.5 per cent) had tried cannabis.
  • Just under 12 per cent had tried tobacco and just under seven per cent smoked on a daily basis.
  • Just over two per cent had tried amphetamines for non-medical reasons.
  • 4.7 per cent had tried ecstasy.
  • 2.1 per cent had tried inhalants – such as petrol, glue and solvents.
  • 2.1 per cent had tried cocaine.

“Grog” or alcohol must be freely available in most Australian households and of course they make their own wine and beer.  Many Australian teenagers have been introduced to alcohol by their parents in a responsible way, hence so  prevalent.

But with tobacco  at 12% try rate, cannabis is at 21.5%, nearly twice as high.

If you combine ecstasy, amphetamines, cocaine et al it adds up to 34.5% nearly three times as much as tobacco.

What do all these drugs have in common that’s right, plain packaging.

I think any statistician would conclude at the very worst there is no correlation between plain packaging tobacco and drug sales and it would not be unreasonable to conclude that the forbidden fruit becomes sweeter and the allure even greater for drug use.

What ever the outcome of plain packaging it seems that sales will not decline, they may even go up. So this becomes an expensive lesson in Chapman’s narcissism  and the demonisation of smokers. I also may mean that teenagers may start consuming far more dangerous substances. But hey we got plain packaging.

http://stephenwilliamsmp.wordpress.com/2012/01/16/tobacco-plain-packs-a-protection-against-the-silent-salesman/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/jan/24/simon-chapman-plain-cigarette-packaging-activist

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Second hand smoke, here are some questions that the anti tobacco groups need to answer

Simon Chapman has been part of the debate on Stephen Williams MP’s blog. He is Australian and have used Australian statistics for my illustration.

Whether second hand smoke (SHS) causes lung cancer (LC) they need to pay particular attention to role of benzo(a)pyrene (BAP) in p53 mutations and whether the rare cases in non smokers is the result of exposure to second hand smoke or wood/coal smoke, car exhausts, industrial pollution or even BBQs.

Assumptions: Population of Australia 2007 21,200,000
Lung cancer deaths in 2007 in Aus 7,626

LC rate per 100,000 = 35.97 approx = 36

90% of LC deaths are smokers, hence LC rate non smokers = 3.6

If you look at the IARC/WHO database Pfeifer and Hainault 10% of non smokers have the guanine to thymine, p53 mutation. This would give SHS LC rate of 0.36 per 100,000 per year, about 1 person per 300,000 people. About 71 people a year.

HOWEVER, BUT, BUT BUT.

The guanine to thymine transversion is also seen in coal miners from argon exposure who are non smokers. The IARC in their zeal to prove that BAP is the cause of LC have overlooked that BAP is also produced in far higher quantities in wood/coal smoke, car exhausts, industrial pollution or even BBQs. My provenance for this is er, Professor Simon Chapman.

In your letter to tobacco control you cites these papers:

“Ott and Seigmann[8] and Wallace and Ott[9] provide data on fine and ultra-fine particle emissions from different sources: “Controlled experiments with 10 cigarettes averaged 0.15 ng mm-2 … ambient wood smoke averaged 0.29 ng mm-2 or about twice those of cigarettes and cigars … In-vehicle exposures measured on 43 and 50 min drives on a California arterial highway gave PC/DC ratios of 0.42 and 0.58 ng mm-2 … Interstate highways had PC/DC ratios of approximately 0.5 ng mm-2 with ratios above 1 ng mm-2 when driving behind diesel trucks. These PC/DC ratios were higher than the ”signature” value of the cigarette (0.11-0.19 ngmm-2)measured in a large Indian gaming casino with smoking.” [8]

When it refers to “ultra-fine partiles” I assume you are referring to PM2.5 of which BAP is one. By your own omission you imply that non smokers ingest far more BAP from wood/coal smoke, car exhausts, industrial pollution, candles and BBQs.

It is quite possible that no one in Australia or the world has ever contracted LC from SHS and the very most it is is 71 per year out of a population of 22 million. This would be the equivalent of 210 in the UK, 3,000 people die on the roads every year in the UK, so crossing the road or driving your car is 15 times more dangerous than SHS?

Sorry it is late here and I hope my maths and decimal places are in the right place. My PHD I hope will let us at last have a honest debate.

All I want to do is have a cigarette in peace in a bar.

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Margaret Thatcher and The Iron lady

Invited by Shane Frith of New Direction a centre-right, free market think tank based in Brussels on Thursday September 30th 2010 is the day I met The Rt Hon. The Baroness Thatcher of Kesteven LG, OM, FRS, albeit briefly. We shook hands and I said it was an honour to meet you, and what an inspiration you are today. She nodded and thanked me as 50 other adoring Thatcherites engulfed her in equal adulation.  Dressed in formal black, slightly stooping, she looked frail, supported by two people on either side. Her Personal Assistant Cynthia Crawford who has worked with her since 1978 was there too.  Nancy Reagan,  Ronald Reagan’s wife sent us a message of encouragement to complete a wonderful evening. I also was able to have a chat with MEP Dan Hannan.

The film itself is hugely entertaining and Meryl Streep is quite brilliant. Her accent and voice are spot on and the acting in a different league. The supporting cast are quite outstanding too and did not need them named to know which politician they were portraying. I am sure an Oscar or two will awarded.

The narrative is in flashback which to my mind means it concentrates too much on her dementia and frailty. Whether her visions of Denis Thatcher imply madness or her complete devotion to him is a matter of conjecture.

What comes across is the cowardice of the Conservative government in the 1970s. Even when the trade unions try to incite the army to mutiny Ted Heath does nothing.  Her battle against such weak and ineffectual colleagues and to turn around the “sick man of Europe” is not entirely obvious but again implied. The violent scenes of the miner’s strike also suggests the left’s tag of divisiveness to society. Although my opinion is that those who choose to be divided can feel divided. Michael Heseltine confirms what a charlatan he has always been.

A great movie, great acting that I thought was reasonably balanced. It is a shame that no current politician approaches her.

As I popped out for a smoke Lady Thatcher was leaving she glanced across at me as I waved. Denis was a lifelong smoker.

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